Only 1% of Mother Earth is favourable for human existence. It implies that Earth is not customized for us( we are just one among the 9 million species she has created)as we boast of or we claim to be. We got in by force or gate crashed into it to find a living and subsequently started abusing her or manipulating her for our own comforts. In the process we resorted to fooling around with her like a pandemic grade virus inflicting deadly poison into her eternal body. We nonchalantly assumed the role of a “species pride” and in such a scenario our echo system took a beating and slowly we realized with an alarm that our surroundings are uninhabitable to our own existence. That is when we organized ourselves to coin the word “Environmental Protection”. Therefore what we are discussing is meant solely for protecting us and not at all a favour we are extending to planet Earth as such. In fact our saviour (Earth) doesn’t need anything from us except a heart-breaking plea to leave her alone and get lost or slip into oblivion.
From such a background let me try to undertake a post-mortem on the progress we have made since we coined the word “Environmental Protection”.
In 1972 only an Environment movement was initiated by UN, when U Thant was at it’s helm as secretary general, at Stockholm. But the movement progressed slowly until 1995 when the COP (Conference of Parties)was coined and objectives were formulated to take on the climatic reverses.
The Conference of the Parties or COPs is a decision making body responsible for monitoring and reviewing the implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climatic Change (UNFCCC).It brings together 197 nations called Parties that have signed on the framework Convention.
Hence at COP -1 the Berlin Mandate was adopted which required the Parties to initiate talks to reduce emissions by means of quantitative objectives and specific deadlines. Two years of negotiations eventually lead to the signing of the Kyoto Protocol.
The Kyoto Protocol operationalized the objectives by committing industrialized nations and transiting economies to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.The Parties were asked to adopt policies and measures on mitigation.
After protracted debates, arguments and negotiations it was in the 2015 COP in Paris a four point objectives were finally evolved and adopted by all Parties involved.
And those were
- To drastically reduce the generation of Greenhouse gases.
- Stabilize the global temperature increment at 1.5 degrees Celsius to circumvent global warming.
- Establish a loss and damage compensation fund to the developing countries by the developed ones.
- Mobilization of a Climatic finance fund or a green finance fund or a corpus fund to facilitate greenhouse gases reduction for the entire planet which includes technology transfers by the developed countries to the developing ones to fast-track containment on a global basis.
The three fundamental steps to be tackled at a green summit is to assess the problem in hand ,and formulate a viable action plan and go forward to implement the same to get rid of the problem.
Assessment and action plans were already formulated from 1997 (Kyoto Accord) through to 2015 at Paris but the implementation still remains a challenge. In the 2021 Glasgow Summit, nitty gritty were liberally debated but not elevated to action mode.
Majority of participants committed to carbon mitigation except Oil producers and China.
On other objectives no consensus could be achieved due to the reluctance of a majority who in fact confined themselves in a safe territory ignoring a fall out on a global scale and into an evolving disaster equation.
The COP 26 Glasgow summit was followed by COP 27 at Sharm El Sheikh,Egypt in 2022.
Let me begin with a statement- “The COP 27 was a runaway disaster” The four point objectives were re-discussed or tabled again at Sharm El Sheikh but it failed miserably to elevate into a definite action plan and on the ground implementation except approving the loss and damage compensation fund clause to the developing countries by the developed ones.
Many countries have agreed to go carbon neutral by 2050 to 2070 including India. But fossils fuel producers and China may not comply. We are at 420 ppm carbon level at the moment. The final threshold is 450 ppm for our very existence and an increment beyond that will place the living world into a gargantuan domain for certain.
And without complying to this objective the temperature increment can’t be plugged for reasons both are interconnected. Therefore in order to stabilize carbon levels as it is now we have to get into a balancing act which otherwise means what we throw out -we sink. It is going to be an uphill battle of sort for humanity.
To negotiate the problem in hand we must resort to multifaceted avenues Viz-
- Fast track green energy production lines like hydrogen, solar power, nuclear power etc.
- Undertake large-scale afforestation initiatives including miawaki micro forests to facilitate carbon sinking,
Restore Mangrooves, Tidal marshes and Sea grass meadows etc to create “blue carbon depositories”.
Apart from containing carbon,other players like methane,nitrous oxide,hydrochloroflurocarbons etc which are dischrged into the atmosphere by industrial and Agricultural sectors are to be negotiated. Even if we achieve the above targets in a few decades we won’t be sanitizing our emviornmetal worries for a very long time line for reasons the alrady existing
thresholds will take at least a century to deplete down to the pre industrial period (during the 18th century).
We are not looking at a zero ppm carbon level when we talk about carbon
neutrality.It is in fact a 300 ppm level like it used to be during pre- industrial times for reasons humanity needs that level to stay comfortably warmer.
And when it attains that target the temperature also will go down by 2° Celsius thus escaping the hurdle of global warming .And the resultant developments shall be sustaining polar ice caps and controlling ocean level increments.
Where we are positioned as a Nation
India is moderately industrialized and also has an Agro-pastoral social order placed at No:2 in the world.
It implies that India is one of the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases .And we are at No:3 behind China and USA.
With a population of 1400 million against 330 million of US we have a tall order to address. Coupled with the exponential populace other detriments are our poverty index and literacy handicap.
But we still have a comfortable advantage to address the puzzle .
The positive angle is the availability of requisite components to reach where we intend to reach .
The fundamental tools are hydrogen capability and hydrolysis enabler silicon. We are gifted with these entities.
A 45% reduction in emissions by 2030 which was committed by PM Modi in Glasgow is almost on target by now.
Therefore our commitment of 5600 GW in 2070 is just a cake walk.
The other trajectory to negotiate is greenhouse gases like methane, nitrous oxide and chloroflurocarbons (CFCs)which are mostly by-products of a deep agropastoral involvement.
India has to scout for or develop new technology tools to tame greens as mentioned above which are emanating out of the very agro activities of our nation.
Along with augmenting green energy production we have to dedicate ourselves for an extensive afforestation programmes and blue carbon depository enablers like Mangrooves, Tidal marshes and Sea grass meadows.
Once we succeed in the above exercises or objectives our commitment to the world community in Glasgow is more than sure to achieve.
Reviewing the whole scenario
The fact of the matter is we as a single human entity is approaching the entire environmental issues in hand in a totally lackadaisical manner.
Let us assume that around 40% of the signatories including India may comply with the projected target by 2050 -2070 out of the 197 signatories. But what about the rest.
The 4th objective of a green funding by the developed to the developing, coupled with technology transfers to the developing segment was not given desired level of consideration in the summits concluded so far. This, regardless of the fact that ultra strong economies spent a fortune (upto 10% of their GDP’S) to stockpile deadly weapons of mass destruction . And without clear-cut prop-up mechanism, the less privileged can’t even dream of attaining the zero carbon threshold by 2070 or beyond.
So what is the purpose of a few “attempts” trying to attain Climatic balancing with a vast majority, watching from the side lines helplessly, the developing environmental catastrophe.
Therefore the fall out due to the in-human self centred psyche of the muscle flexing bigwigs will develop into an apocalypse as described in the Biblical book of Revelation.
Winding up
Summarizing Issues:
- Carbon concentration at present is – 420ppm against 300 ppm in the 18th century.
And the final threshold is 450 ppm. - Methane at 2300 ppb now against 700 ppb in the 18th century. We can’t afford to bypass 3000 ppb at any cost.
- Nitrous oxide is at 350 ppb against 260 ppb in the 18th century .It can’t be increased further
than 400 ppb - Chloroflurocarbons follow the above route more or less.
Apart from the above we have at-least a couple of deadly by-products due to global warming
A. Receding ice-caps in the Hindukush mountain’s part of the Himalayas or the “third pole” which will flood and inundate all the lifeline rivers of India which in-turn will inflict chaotic turbulences in peninsular India and Asia in general.
B. Warming up of central -east equatorial Pacific Ocean will trigger an El-Nino phenomenon which in turn is predicted to arrest the life essential monsoons of countries east of equatorial pacific including India, Coupled with an increased frequency of cyclones due to the development of a vertical wind shear.
Summarizing Solutions to circumvent the catastrophic fall-outs
I was trying to conclude my impressions here. But my continued follow up based on new
reading materials reveals many factors hidden which are alarming in nature.
- Go all out to replace fossils fuels into green energy systems viz. Hydrogen, Solar, wind and nuclear power etc.
- Undertake massive afforestation drives including Miawaki micro systems to sink carbon.
- Promote Man-grooves, Tidal marshes and Sea grass meadows to create “Blue Carbon” depositories.
- Find alternative technology tools and enablers to reduce greens in industrial and Agricultural sectors.
- Educate the entire population with special emphasis on younger
generations on the importance of sustaining nature’s ecosystems and biodiversity equations intact or harmonious. - Establish environment focussed NGO’S and implement mitigation initiatives.
P.S.
As described earlier the COP’S deliberated extensively on the projected objectives and implementation route to fulfill the objectives in front. But what was not brought to the forefront are the fallouts or offshoots of the alarming environmental distress route we the humanoids or the living world as a whole is confronted with.
I am trying to tabulate below the various disaster scenarios we are all facing or going to face in the immediate future due to the loss of biodiversity, the climatic crisis and the ecosystem excesses. A report published recently analysed more than 150 studies to produce a comprehensive summary of the state of the natural world. It indicates dangerous future trends in biodiversity decline, mass extinction and Climatic imbalances.
Let us identify and tabulate some of them –
- The findings highlight a Climatic induced mass migration, more pandemics and conflicts over resources.
- An estimated one million species are at risk of extinction and a majority within decades.
- The human population has doubled since the 1960s.Needless to say more people generate more food insecurity ,soil degradation and pollution leading to the loss of biodiversity.
- Due to extensive agro activities to feed millions the biomass of terrestrial vegetation has been reduced to half. And as a result we have altered two thirds of earth’s land surface.
- As a fallout of Climatic reverses the size of animal species population has substantially decreased.
- Also more than One million such species are threatened with extinction globally in this century itself. Insects are also diminishing.
- About 85% of the global wetlands got lost in the last 300 years.
- 65% of the global oceans are compromised by humans so far.
- Environmental degradation has taken a toll in the destruction of marine ecosystems due to ocean warming ( 90 % of excess heat produced by human activities are absorbed by the oceans or the oceans act as heat sinks). Water levels are rising due to melting of polar ice-caps which in turn trigger flooding of coastal regions world over affecting millions. Oceans also act as carbon depositories which in turn depletes oxygen levels, directly affecting marine life systems as a whole.
- The Climatic excesses generated due to the growth mania of our civilization is destroying the the very fabric of planet Earth.
- The El-Nino phenomenon due to temperature increments over the eastern equatorial pacific is making parts of America and Europe much more warmer( As per latest reports North America and Europe are reeling under high temperature levels) And as a byproduct large tracts of these regions are succumbing to bush fires which in turn delivers millions of tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere. The funny part is the role entrusted to the greens by nature to sink carbon has reversed the role- i.e. instead of sinking these geographies are sending out the same back to nature. Very pathetic indeed. And as far as India is concerned a drought situation will result in poor farm produce and famine thereafter.
- Melting of Himalayan ice cover or the third pole due to elevated temperatures will create flooding of India’s lifeline rivers generating devastations in peninsular India.
- Our biosphere is heavily bombarded by callous human infringements which in-turn depletes the very ecosystems and biodiversity the life essentials of a continued and harmonious human existence.
And therefore the negativities of Climatic reversals chronicled as above and much more should be taken up and highlighted effectively by delegates of the COP28 which is slated to be convened in Dubai during Nov-Dec this year.
Another effective tool for Climatic mitigation is-: Going to the masses and educating them on the repercussions chasing them.
This is possible in my opinion only if the United Nations itself takes the lead by kick-starting awareness campaigns from classroom levels to higher ups so that the gravity of the situation or the calamity about to descent on them can be driven into
their psyche so that direct action for mitigation can be rolled out by them the stakeholders themselves. And if not our immediate future generation and generations beyond will be thrown into unfathomable or immeasurable suffering zones for sure.
